2012 Technology Predictions: Tech Giants Will Learn to Walk Softly
2012 Technology Predictions: Tech Giants Will Learn to Walk Softly
Every decade or so a new industry emerges that changes the entire game. From these, monolithic companies were formed that dominated the industry and whose actions impacted surrounding industries. In the US we have seen examples of this in Standard Oil, US Steel, AT&T (before it was broken up) as well as many other industries.
Google’s Flight Search provides some really useful features. But does it unfairly damage the rest of the travel search industry? Though Google has its user’s interests at heart, it often acts in ways that are anticompetitive.
We saw this also occur in the case of Microsoft, who started as a specialized company that basically created its own industry. As Microsoft grew so did hundreds of companies dependent on it, and as Microsoft grew so did its impact on surrounding industries. But at some point Microsoft stopped becoming a tech startup and matured into a tech giant. Errant words or actions could mean life or death for related businesses and its ability to impact or bankrupt niche competition rose to the point that government intervention was necessary.
Now we have two relatively new tech startups that have turned into technology giants: Google and Facebook. Just like Microsoft a many years ago, these companies have yet to fully realize or accept their role as dominant players in the market. And just like Microsoft, they will eventually learn, or be compelled to learn, the limits of what they can and cannot do.
With multiple forms of government investigation, oversight and interest it is likely that they will be compelled into behaving more nimbly. But with the negative publicity and potential reputation damage, even the threat of investigation could coerce them to be more careful.
That’s not to say that these companies intend to be disruptive. In fact, their actions are intentioned to provide improved and expanded services to customers. But they are also the very definition of monopolistic behavior, and they can severely disrupt or bankrupt entire industries simply by offering the same services for free – something that Google and Facebook frequently do.
